Not understanding the details of line movement and betting volume is like going to a wet t-shirt contest with a blind fold. The ability to follow sharp money or bet with the book can be a big advantage. Below, is a simple technique that can help you put extra dollars in your pocket. Because, not knowing when a team is receiving the most/least amount of action can ruin a bettor’s weekend.
In Theory, a bookmaker would like to see the same amount of action on both sides of the wager. But when there’s substantial money on one side, the line will tend to move in that direction (most of the time). However, there are two factors, where the opposite occurs:
- Sharp money coming in on the lesser bet team. Sharp money is when “professional” sports bettors place a significant amount of money on a certain line.
- The bookmaker holds a strong opinion against the majority side. (The book has no problem challenging the majority, especially if they feel strong about their position).
The easiest way to spot these types of moves is searching for Reverse-line movement. Reverse-line movement refers to betting line movement that contradicts the public percentages.
For example: If Mississippi has 75% of betting wages and Florida has 25%, but Florida’s odds go from EV to -2 then we can assume that a large amount of money (or bookmaker is taking a position) has come in on the Gators. In others words, reverse-line movement. This is not a perfect science, not every reverse-line movement is correct, but knowing which team has heavy traffic and who’s betting them, will help you be more efficient in handicapping games. No bet should be made until you have this data.